Was the forecast right for San Diego on Fri Aug 28?
San Diego, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAN observations
3 days out, 7 models put San Diego's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 85° to 102°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 84° against the SAN observations — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 2.1°. ECMWF ran 12° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Diego scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 90° | 102° | 88° | 87° | 85° | 89° | 85–102° |
| 2d · 2026-08-26 | 90° | 89° | 100° | 86° | 84° | 85° | 92° | 84–100° |
| 1d · 2026-08-27 | 92° | 91° | 101° | 86° | 83° | 84° | 94° | 83–101° |
| 0d · 2026-08-28 | 89° | 92° | 96° | 87° | 81° | 86° | 90° | 81–96° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Diego — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAN observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.