Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Mon Aug 31?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

6 days out, 6 models put San Antonio's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 36° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 36° against the SAT observations — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 1° hot.

6 days out the models said 36–38; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 1°C hot. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
6d · 2026-08-25	37°	37°	38°	36°	38°	38°	—	36–38°
5d · 2026-08-26	37°	36°	37°	34°	35°	37°	35°	34–37°
4d · 2026-08-27	37°	36°	38°	35°	38°	38°	36°	35–38°
3d · 2026-08-28	37°	37°	37°	36°	37°	37°	36°	36–37°
2d · 2026-08-29	37°	36°	37°	36°	36°	38°	36°	36–38°
1d · 2026-08-30	36°	36°	37°	36°	37°	37°	36°	36–37°
0d · 2026-08-31	36°	36°	37°	36°	38°	37°	37°	36–38°
actual								36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.