Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Aug 31?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
11 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 28° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 28°. The day verified at 31° against the SLC observations, with 1.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-20 | 28° | 28° | 36° | — | 34° | — | — | 28–36° |
| 10d · 2026-08-21 | 30° | 27° | 35° | — | 35° | — | — | 27–35° |
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 27° | 25° | 36° | 28° | 35° | — | — | 25–36° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 25° | 26° | 34° | 26° | 31° | — | — | 25–34° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 24° | 27° | 32° | 24° | 33° | — | — | 24–33° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 23° | 28° | 27° | 27° | 33° | 27° | 29° | 23–33° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 24° | 26° | 30° | 27° | 31° | 28° | 30° | 24–31° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 27° | 26° | 27° | 28° | 32° | 29° | 31° | 26–32° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 27° | 27° | 28° | 28° | 30° | 26° | 27° | 26–30° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 26° | 27° | 26° | 30° | 31° | 28° | 27° | 26–31° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 25° | 28° | 26° | 30° | 31° | 28° | 29° | 25–31° |
| 0d · 2026-08-31 | 25° | 28° | 27° | 29° | 32° | 28° | 29° | 25–32° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.