The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Aug 30?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

10 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 78° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 82° against the SLC observations — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 9° cold.

10 days out the models said 78–91; it hit 82. GFS led (off 0.9°F); ECMWF ran 9°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-08-20 86° 78° 91° 87° 78–91°
9d · 2026-08-21 87° 77° 93° 84° 92° 77–93°
8d · 2026-08-22 82° 85° 92° 82° 95° 82–95°
7d · 2026-08-23 76° 75° 88° 84° 100° 75–100°
6d · 2026-08-24 77° 82° 85° 79° 86° 83° 80° 77–86°
5d · 2026-08-25 77° 82° 81° 75° 87° 82° 79° 75–87°
4d · 2026-08-26 77° 79° 77° 78° 84° 76° 83° 76–84°
3d · 2026-08-27 75° 79° 76° 78° 81° 72° 78° 72–81°
2d · 2026-08-28 74° 79° 75° 76° 83° 75° 79° 74–83°
1d · 2026-08-29 74° 80° 76° 80° 84° 75° 80° 74–84°
0d · 2026-08-30 76° 80° 73° 78° 83° 77° 80° 73–83°
actual 82°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.