Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Aug 30?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
10 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 78° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 82° against the SLC observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 9° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-20 | 86° | 78° | 91° | — | 87° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-21 | 87° | 77° | 93° | 84° | 92° | — | — | 77–93° |
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 82° | 85° | 92° | 82° | 95° | — | — | 82–95° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 76° | 75° | 88° | 84° | 100° | — | — | 75–100° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 77° | 82° | 85° | 79° | 86° | 83° | 80° | 77–86° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 77° | 82° | 81° | 75° | 87° | 82° | 79° | 75–87° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 77° | 79° | 77° | 78° | 84° | 76° | 83° | 76–84° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 75° | 79° | 76° | 78° | 81° | 72° | 78° | 72–81° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 74° | 79° | 75° | 76° | 83° | 75° | 79° | 74–83° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 74° | 80° | 76° | 80° | 84° | 75° | 80° | 74–84° |
| 0d · 2026-08-30 | 76° | 80° | 73° | 78° | 83° | 77° | 80° | 73–83° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.