The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Aug 29?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

9 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 78° to 101°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 75° against the SLC observations, with 0.2 in of precipitation — showers.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.0°. GFS ran 9° hot.

9 days out the models said 78–101; it hit 75. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 9°F hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-08-20 86° 78° 95° 101° 78–101°
8d · 2026-08-21 86° 79° 92° 88° 90° 79–92°
7d · 2026-08-22 81° 83° 92° 90° 94° 81–94°
6d · 2026-08-23 71° 79° 90° 82° 94° 84° 80° 71–94°
5d · 2026-08-24 73° 77° 90° 76° 82° 76° 85° 73–90°
4d · 2026-08-25 74° 76° 80° 77° 80° 77° 78° 74–80°
3d · 2026-08-26 72° 76° 79° 84° 82° 76° 76° 72–84°
2d · 2026-08-27 72° 77° 76° 81° 85° 77° 77° 72–85°
1d · 2026-08-28 70° 76° 73° 76° 82° 77° 76° 70–82°
0d · 2026-08-29 73° 78° 75° 83° 84° 74° 78° 73–84°
actual 75°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.