The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Aug 28?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

8 days out, 5 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 26° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 33° against the SLC observations, with 2.5 mm of precipitation — showers.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 5° cold.

8 days out the models said 26–37; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 5°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
8d · 2026-08-20 31° 26° 37° 33° 36° 26–37°
7d · 2026-08-21 32° 28° 35° 33° 36° 28–36°
6d · 2026-08-22 33° 30° 33° 32° 35° 36° 34° 30–36°
5d · 2026-08-23 32° 32° 35° 31° 34° 34° 31° 31–35°
4d · 2026-08-24 31° 32° 37° 33° 33° 32° 32° 31–37°
3d · 2026-08-25 33° 32° 34° 31° 36° 34° 32° 31–36°
2d · 2026-08-26 32° 32° 32° 31° 35° 31° 29° 29–35°
1d · 2026-08-27 29° 32° 31° 32° 34° 33° 31° 29–34°
0d · 2026-08-28 28° 31° 31° 32° 34° 31° 33° 28–34°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.