The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Aug 26?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

6 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 33° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 36° against the SLC observations — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

6 days out the models said 33–36; it hit 36. GFS led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
6d · 2026-08-20 34° 33° 36° 33° 36° 36° 35° 33–36°
5d · 2026-08-21 35° 34° 36° 33° 36° 36° 36° 33–36°
4d · 2026-08-22 34° 33° 35° 33° 35° 37° 34° 33–37°
3d · 2026-08-23 33° 34° 34° 34° 35° 33° 33° 33–35°
2d · 2026-08-24 33° 34° 34° 35° 35° 36° 34° 33–36°
1d · 2026-08-25 34° 34° 35° 35° 35° 34° 34° 34–35°
0d · 2026-08-26 33° 34° 34° 36° 35° 35° 34° 33–36°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.