Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Tue Aug 25?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

5 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 32° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 34° against the SLC observations — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

5 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 34. GEM led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
5d · 2026-08-20	33°	32°	35°	33°	34°	36°	33°	32–36°
4d · 2026-08-21	33°	31°	34°	32°	35°	35°	34°	31–35°
3d · 2026-08-22	33°	32°	34°	32°	33°	34°	34°	32–34°
2d · 2026-08-23	32°	32°	34°	32°	33°	34°	33°	32–34°
1d · 2026-08-24	33°	32°	33°	32°	33°	33°	33°	32–33°
0d · 2026-08-25	33°	33°	33°	34°	34°	33°	33°	33–34°
actual								34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.