The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Aug 24?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

4 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 31° to 35°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 35° against the SLC observations, with 1.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 5° cold.

4 days out the models said 31–35; it hit 35. ICON led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 5°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
4d · 2026-08-20 32° 31° 34° 32° 35° 35° 33° 31–35°
3d · 2026-08-21 33° 32° 34° 32° 35° 36° 34° 32–36°
2d · 2026-08-22 32° 32° 34° 32° 34° 36° 32° 32–36°
1d · 2026-08-23 30° 32° 32° 31° 34° 36° 33° 30–36°
0d · 2026-08-24 30° 33° 33° 35° 35° 35° 33° 30–35°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.