Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Aug 16?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Aug 16 high anywhere from 73° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 91° — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-01 | — | 92° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 90–92° |
| 14d · 2026-08-02 | 86° | 73° | 84° | — | 100° | — | — | 73–100° |
| 13d · 2026-08-03 | 81° | 76° | 96° | — | 97° | — | — | 76–97° |
| 12d · 2026-08-04 | 75° | 82° | 92° | — | 100° | — | — | 75–100° |
| 11d · 2026-08-05 | 79° | 79° | 84° | — | 97° | — | — | 79–97° |
| 10d · 2026-08-06 | 75° | 82° | 92° | — | 94° | — | — | 75–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-07 | 82° | 86° | 93° | 89° | 93° | — | — | 82–93° |
| 8d · 2026-08-08 | 84° | 85° | 87° | 85° | 93° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 7d · 2026-08-09 | 88° | 82° | 89° | 90° | 88° | — | — | 82–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-10 | 88° | 89° | 91° | 90° | 94° | 87° | 88° | 87–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-11 | 88° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 91° | 89° | 90° | 88–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-12 | 88° | 88° | 87° | 88° | 95° | 88° | 86° | 86–95° |
| 3d · 2026-08-13 | 88° | 88° | 87° | 89° | 94° | 88° | 88° | 87–94° |
| 2d · 2026-08-14 | 88° | 89° | 86° | 90° | 95° | 89° | 89° | 86–95° |
| 1d · 2026-08-15 | 89° | 89° | 86° | 90° | 93° | 89° | 88° | 86–93° |
| 0d · 2026-08-16 | 90° | 89° | 90° | 90° | 94° | 89° | 88° | 88–94° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.