Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Aug 15?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 82° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 83° — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-31 | — | 91° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 91–96° |
| 14d · 2026-08-01 | 83° | 87° | 92° | — | 82° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 13d · 2026-08-02 | 96° | 77° | 81° | — | 99° | — | — | 77–99° |
| 12d · 2026-08-03 | 80° | 86° | 94° | — | 101° | — | — | 80–101° |
| 11d · 2026-08-04 | 82° | 79° | 93° | — | 100° | — | — | 79–100° |
| 10d · 2026-08-05 | 75° | 79° | 85° | — | 95° | — | — | 75–95° |
| 9d · 2026-08-06 | 72° | 80° | 96° | 78° | 90° | — | — | 72–96° |
| 8d · 2026-08-07 | 70° | 80° | 89° | 81° | 89° | — | — | 70–89° |
| 7d · 2026-08-08 | 80° | 80° | 80° | 78° | 90° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-09 | 83° | 81° | 87° | 85° | 91° | 84° | 86° | 81–91° |
| 5d · 2026-08-10 | 84° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 94° | 85° | 87° | 84–94° |
| 4d · 2026-08-11 | 83° | 85° | 84° | 87° | 92° | 84° | 85° | 83–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-12 | 84° | 85° | 82° | 86° | 91° | 85° | 84° | 82–91° |
| 2d · 2026-08-13 | 83° | 84° | 80° | 86° | 90° | 83° | 85° | 80–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-14 | 83° | 84° | 80° | 85° | 88° | 84° | 84° | 80–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-15 | 84° | 85° | 81° | 86° | 87° | 84° | 82° | 81–87° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.