Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Aug 12?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Aug 12 high anywhere from 79° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° with 0.1 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 8° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-28 | — | 87° | — | — | 101° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 14d · 2026-07-29 | 79° | 92° | 98° | — | 100° | — | — | 79–100° |
| 13d · 2026-07-30 | 89° | 85° | 95° | — | 99° | — | — | 85–99° |
| 12d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 84° | 96° | — | 99° | — | — | 84–99° |
| 11d · 2026-08-01 | 82° | 86° | 94° | — | 99° | — | — | 82–99° |
| 10d · 2026-08-02 | 89° | 85° | 90° | — | 95° | — | — | 85–95° |
| 9d · 2026-08-03 | 78° | 88° | 87° | 88° | 98° | — | — | 78–98° |
| 8d · 2026-08-04 | 84° | 87° | 95° | 89° | 96° | — | — | 84–96° |
| 7d · 2026-08-05 | 83° | 91° | 90° | 92° | 102° | — | — | 83–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-06 | 82° | 88° | 94° | 90° | 98° | 93° | 94° | 82–98° |
| 5d · 2026-08-07 | 80° | 85° | 93° | 87° | 99° | 94° | 90° | 80–99° |
| 4d · 2026-08-08 | 78° | 79° | 90° | 87° | 94° | 87° | 94° | 78–94° |
| 3d · 2026-08-09 | 78° | 86° | 89° | 95° | 93° | 86° | 89° | 78–95° |
| 2d · 2026-08-10 | 80° | 85° | 86° | 96° | 92° | 89° | 86° | 80–96° |
| 1d · 2026-08-11 | 81° | 85° | 85° | 92° | 84° | 90° | 86° | 81–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-12 | 80° | 87° | 85° | 86° | 88° | 87° | 84° | 80–88° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.