Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Tue Aug 4?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 98° to 103°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. ERA5 says the day verified at 91° — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-20 | — | 94° | — | — | 104° | — | — | 94–104° |
| 14d · 2026-07-21 | 100° | 98° | 103° | — | 103° | — | — | 98–103° |
| 13d · 2026-07-22 | 96° | 92° | 108° | — | 100° | — | — | 92–108° |
| 12d · 2026-07-23 | 90° | 90° | 105° | — | 105° | — | — | 90–105° |
| 11d · 2026-07-24 | 90° | 100° | 103° | — | 105° | — | — | 90–105° |
| 10d · 2026-07-25 | 94° | 97° | 102° | — | 105° | — | — | 94–105° |
| 9d · 2026-07-26 | 94° | 101° | 98° | 95° | 103° | — | — | 94–103° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 94° | 98° | 100° | 97° | 90° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 94° | 96° | 101° | 95° | 93° | — | — | 93–101° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 91° | 90° | 95° | 92° | 91° | 99° | 100° | 90–100° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 90° | 87° | 96° | 90° | 91° | 92° | 94° | 87–96° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 87° | 94° | 88° | 94° | 90° | 93° | 87–94° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 89° | 86° | 93° | 89° | 91° | 88° | 92° | 86–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 89° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 91° | 89° | 89° | 87–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 89° | 88° | 91° | 89° | 91° | 88° | 88° | 88–91° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 88° | 88° | 90° | 87° | 91° | 87° | 88° | 87–91° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.