Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Aug 3?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 90° to 105°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. ERA5 says the day verified at 91° — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. ICON ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-19 | — | 98° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 98–102° |
| 14d · 2026-07-20 | 95° | 90° | 101° | — | 105° | — | — | 90–105° |
| 13d · 2026-07-21 | 100° | 97° | 99° | — | 97° | — | — | 97–100° |
| 12d · 2026-07-22 | 103° | 89° | 106° | — | 98° | — | — | 89–106° |
| 11d · 2026-07-23 | 96° | 93° | 106° | — | 101° | — | — | 93–106° |
| 10d · 2026-07-24 | 92° | 96° | 104° | — | 103° | — | — | 92–104° |
| 9d · 2026-07-25 | 93° | 95° | 99° | 86° | 102° | — | — | 86–102° |
| 8d · 2026-07-26 | 91° | 98° | 97° | 98° | 102° | — | — | 91–102° |
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 89° | 96° | 96° | 93° | 100° | — | — | 89–100° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 90° | 95° | 96° | 92° | 95° | 96° | 93° | 90–96° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 91° | 93° | 97° | 93° | 100° | 94° | 97° | 91–100° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 91° | 91° | 96° | 90° | 98° | 90° | 95° | 90–98° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 90° | 90° | 94° | 89° | 95° | 88° | 94° | 88–95° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 89° | 89° | 93° | 90° | 92° | 91° | 93° | 89–93° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 90° | 88° | 90° | 88° | 92° | 89° | 90° | 88–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-03 | 88° | 89° | 90° | 89° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 88–92° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.