Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Aug 1?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 92° to 99°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 103°. ERA5 says the day verified at 105° — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. GEM ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-17 | — | 99° | — | — | 107° | — | — | 99–107° |
| 14d · 2026-07-18 | 92° | 99° | 94° | — | 96° | — | — | 92–99° |
| 13d · 2026-07-19 | 94° | 100° | 97° | — | 102° | — | — | 94–102° |
| 12d · 2026-07-20 | 94° | 95° | 105° | — | 93° | — | — | 93–105° |
| 11d · 2026-07-21 | 98° | 101° | 101° | — | 102° | — | — | 98–102° |
| 10d · 2026-07-22 | 98° | 101° | 105° | — | 96° | — | — | 96–105° |
| 9d · 2026-07-23 | 101° | 96° | 104° | 100° | 102° | — | — | 96–104° |
| 8d · 2026-07-24 | 100° | 97° | 108° | 99° | 103° | — | — | 97–108° |
| 7d · 2026-07-25 | 102° | 102° | 108° | 99° | 106° | — | — | 99–108° |
| 6d · 2026-07-26 | 103° | 104° | 108° | 100° | 107° | 105° | 104° | 100–108° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 103° | 104° | 106° | 99° | 108° | 104° | 106° | 99–108° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 102° | 102° | 106° | 99° | 106° | 102° | 105° | 99–106° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 102° | 102° | 107° | 102° | 105° | 103° | 105° | 102–107° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 101° | 101° | 106° | 101° | 106° | 102° | 103° | 101–106° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 102° | 102° | 105° | 100° | 107° | 101° | 102° | 100–107° |
| 0d · 2026-08-01 | 102° | 103° | 104° | 101° | 106° | 101° | 103° | 101–106° |
| actual | 105° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.