Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Jul 23?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
6 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Jul 23 high anywhere from 78° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 94°. ERA5 says the day verified at 96° with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-17 | 86° | 90° | 86° | 92° | 95° | 78° | 96° | 78–96° |
| 5d · 2026-07-18 | 89° | 92° | 95° | 94° | 94° | 88° | 94° | 88–95° |
| 4d · 2026-07-19 | 89° | 92° | 93° | 92° | 95° | 86° | 93° | 86–95° |
| 3d · 2026-07-20 | 91° | 92° | 94° | 95° | 95° | 87° | 94° | 87–95° |
| 2d · 2026-07-21 | 93° | 91° | 94° | 94° | 95° | 87° | 93° | 87–95° |
| 1d · 2026-07-22 | 92° | 91° | 93° | 93° | 97° | 91° | 92° | 91–97° |
| 0d · 2026-07-23 | 94° | 94° | 93° | 94° | 96° | 94° | 91° | 91–96° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.