Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Tue Jul 21?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
4 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Tue Jul 21 high anywhere from 89° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. ERA5 says the day verified at 99° with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-17 | 89° | 92° | 96° | 92° | 98° | 94° | 96° | 89–98° |
| 3d · 2026-07-18 | 90° | 93° | 97° | 98° | 98° | 92° | 99° | 90–99° |
| 2d · 2026-07-19 | 92° | 94° | 96° | 90° | 97° | 91° | 98° | 90–98° |
| 1d · 2026-07-20 | 93° | 94° | 98° | 96° | 98° | 97° | 99° | 93–99° |
| 0d · 2026-07-21 | 95° | 93° | 100° | 97° | 99° | 96° | 98° | 93–100° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.