Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Tue Aug 25?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
5 days out, 7 models put Phoenix's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 108° to 114°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 112°. The day verified at 115° against the PHX observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.8°. GEM ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-20 | 109° | 108° | 114° | 109° | 110° | 114° | 112° | 108–114° |
| 4d · 2026-08-21 | 110° | 111° | 114° | 109° | 114° | 114° | 111° | 109–114° |
| 3d · 2026-08-22 | 112° | 111° | 115° | 108° | 112° | 114° | 112° | 108–115° |
| 2d · 2026-08-23 | 112° | 111° | 114° | 110° | 112° | 114° | 114° | 110–114° |
| 1d · 2026-08-24 | 112° | 111° | 113° | 108° | 112° | 112° | 111° | 108–113° |
| 0d · 2026-08-25 | 113° | 112° | 113° | 110° | 112° | 113° | 111° | 110–113° |
| actual | 115° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.