The Spread

Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Mon Aug 24?

Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations

4 days out, 7 models put Phoenix's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 39° to 44°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 41°. The day verified at 42° against the PHX observations, with 1.0 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 3° cold.

4 days out the models said 39–44; it hit 42. ICON led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
4d · 2026-08-20 40° 41° 44° 42° 39° 44° 43° 39–44°
3d · 2026-08-21 41° 42° 44° 41° 43° 43° 41° 41–44°
2d · 2026-08-22 42° 41° 43° 41° 41° 43° 41° 41–43°
1d · 2026-08-23 41° 41° 43° 41° 40° 43° 43° 40–43°
0d · 2026-08-24 41° 41° 43° 41° 42° 42° 39° 39–43°
actual 42°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.