Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Mon Aug 10?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 88° to 109°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 107°. ERA5 says the day verified at 108° — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-07-27 | 90° | 100° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 90–102° |
| 13d · 2026-07-28 | 102° | 98° | 88° | — | 109° | — | — | 88–109° |
| 12d · 2026-07-29 | 106° | 103° | 107° | — | 101° | — | — | 101–107° |
| 11d · 2026-07-30 | 102° | 102° | 106° | — | 104° | — | — | 102–106° |
| 10d · 2026-07-31 | 96° | 94° | 93° | — | 105° | — | — | 93–105° |
| 9d · 2026-08-01 | 92° | 92° | 103° | — | 105° | — | — | 92–105° |
| 8d · 2026-08-02 | 102° | 104° | 103° | 106° | 105° | — | — | 102–106° |
| 7d · 2026-08-03 | 104° | 106° | 104° | 110° | 105° | — | — | 104–110° |
| 6d · 2026-08-04 | 107° | 108° | 106° | 107° | 105° | 99° | — | 99–108° |
| 5d · 2026-08-05 | 106° | 108° | 103° | 104° | 107° | 102° | 105° | 102–108° |
| 4d · 2026-08-06 | 105° | 108° | 105° | 107° | 108° | 102° | 105° | 102–108° |
| 3d · 2026-08-07 | 106° | 106° | 109° | 108° | 107° | 108° | 107° | 106–109° |
| 2d · 2026-08-08 | 106° | 105° | 105° | 108° | 106° | 107° | 104° | 104–108° |
| 1d · 2026-08-09 | 108° | 105° | 105° | 106° | 107° | 108° | 107° | 105–108° |
| 0d · 2026-08-10 | 107° | 106° | 106° | 109° | 108° | 108° | 103° | 103–109° |
| actual | 108° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.