Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Sat Aug 8?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
12 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Sat Aug 8 high anywhere from 35° to 40°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 44°. ERA5 says the day verified at 44° — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-07-27 | 39° | 35° | 40° | — | 36° | — | — | 35–40° |
| 11d · 2026-07-28 | 39° | 38° | 37° | — | 36° | — | — | 36–39° |
| 10d · 2026-07-29 | 42° | 41° | 41° | — | 40° | — | — | 40–42° |
| 9d · 2026-07-30 | 42° | 40° | 42° | — | 41° | — | — | 40–42° |
| 8d · 2026-07-31 | 41° | 41° | 40° | 42° | 41° | — | — | 40–42° |
| 7d · 2026-08-01 | 40° | 41° | 43° | 42° | 42° | — | — | 40–43° |
| 6d · 2026-08-02 | 42° | 41° | 44° | 44° | 43° | 46° | — | 41–46° |
| 5d · 2026-08-03 | 43° | 42° | 43° | 44° | 42° | 45° | 45° | 42–45° |
| 4d · 2026-08-04 | 43° | 42° | 46° | 45° | 42° | 46° | 44° | 42–46° |
| 3d · 2026-08-05 | 43° | 42° | 45° | 45° | 43° | 45° | 44° | 42–45° |
| 2d · 2026-08-06 | 44° | 42° | 45° | 44° | 44° | 45° | 44° | 42–45° |
| 1d · 2026-08-07 | 44° | 43° | 46° | 44° | 45° | 45° | 45° | 43–46° |
| 0d · 2026-08-08 | 44° | 42° | 46° | 44° | 44° | 45° | 43° | 42–46° |
| actual | 44° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.