Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Mon Aug 3?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
7 days out, 5 models put Phoenix's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 110° to 111°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 113°. ERA5 says the day verified at 114° — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 110° | 110° | 110° | 111° | 111° | — | — | 110–111° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 110° | 112° | 107° | 113° | 111° | 111° | — | 107–113° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 111° | 112° | 112° | 113° | 111° | 111° | 114° | 111–114° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 113° | 112° | 112° | 113° | 111° | 111° | 113° | 111–113° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 113° | 111° | 113° | 112° | 111° | 114° | 115° | 111–115° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 112° | 111° | 114° | 114° | 111° | 113° | 115° | 111–115° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 112° | 110° | 114° | 113° | 112° | 112° | 115° | 110–115° |
| 0d · 2026-08-03 | 112° | 111° | 114° | 114° | 114° | 113° | 113° | 111–114° |
| actual | 114° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.