Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Sat Aug 1?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
5 days out, 7 models put Phoenix's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 106° to 117°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 115°. ERA5 says the day verified at 114° — partly cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 116° | 112° | 117° | 106° | 112° | 111° | 112° | 106–117° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 115° | 114° | 116° | 111° | 110° | 116° | 115° | 110–116° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 116° | 115° | 117° | 113° | 115° | 117° | 117° | 113–117° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 117° | 113° | 117° | 114° | 114° | 117° | 117° | 113–117° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 116° | 114° | 118° | 116° | 117° | 116° | 117° | 114–118° |
| 0d · 2026-08-01 | 115° | 112° | 116° | 116° | 116° | 114° | 115° | 112–116° |
| actual | 114° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.