The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Aug 31?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

12 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 33° to 45°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 38° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°.

12 days out the models said 33–45; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
12d · 2026-08-19 37° 44° 33° — 45° — — 33–45°
11d · 2026-08-20 36° 38° 39° — 42° — — 36–42°
10d · 2026-08-21 37° 38° 39° — 42° — — 37–42°
9d · 2026-08-22 37° 39° 37° 39° 39° — — 37–39°
8d · 2026-08-23 37° 38° 39° 38° 43° — — 37–43°
7d · 2026-08-24 38° 38° 38° 38° 41° — — 38–41°
6d · 2026-08-25 38° 38° 38° 38° 42° 40° 37° 37–42°
5d · 2026-08-26 38° 38° 39° 37° 41° 38° 39° 37–41°
4d · 2026-08-27 38° 39° 39° 37° 42° 38° 40° 37–42°
3d · 2026-08-28 38° 38° 39° 37° 41° 38° 38° 37–41°
2d · 2026-08-29 38° 38° 38° 38° 41° 38° 38° 38–41°
1d · 2026-08-30 38° 38° 38° 38° 41° 38° 38° 38–41°
0d · 2026-08-31 38° 38° 38° 38° 39° 38° 38° 38–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.