The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Aug 30?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

11 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 32° to 46°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 40° against the OKC observations — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.

11 days out the models said 32–46; it hit 40. GFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
11d · 2026-08-19 36° 38° 32° — 46° — — 32–46°
10d · 2026-08-20 37° 39° 38° — 43° — — 37–43°
9d · 2026-08-21 37° 39° 40° 39° 42° — — 37–42°
8d · 2026-08-22 37° 39° 39° 37° 35° — — 35–39°
7d · 2026-08-23 36° 39° 37° 38° 45° — — 36–45°
6d · 2026-08-24 38° 37° 38° 37° 43° 37° 38° 37–43°
5d · 2026-08-25 38° 37° 38° 38° 43° 40° 40° 37–43°
4d · 2026-08-26 38° 38° 39° 37° 42° 38° 41° 37–42°
3d · 2026-08-27 38° 39° 40° 37° 42° 40° 41° 37–42°
2d · 2026-08-28 38° 39° 38° 38° 41° 38° 39° 38–41°
1d · 2026-08-29 38° 38° 38° 38° 41° 39° 38° 38–41°
0d · 2026-08-30 38° 39° 38° 38° 40° 38° 39° 38–40°
actual 40°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.