The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Aug 29?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

10 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Aug 29 high anywhere from 32° to 46°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 39°. The day verified at 39° against the OKC observations — cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.

10 days out the models said 32–46; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-08-19 34° 40° 32° — 46° — — 32–46°
9d · 2026-08-20 34° 39° 38° — 43° — — 34–43°
8d · 2026-08-21 36° 39° 39° 40° 43° — — 36–43°
7d · 2026-08-22 36° 36° 38° 34° 41° — — 34–41°
6d · 2026-08-23 37° 38° 36° 37° 43° 34° 35° 34–43°
5d · 2026-08-24 38° 36° 37° 37° 43° 36° 38° 36–43°
4d · 2026-08-25 38° 36° 37° 38° 41° 36° 38° 36–41°
3d · 2026-08-26 37° 37° 37° 36° 41° 37° 39° 36–41°
2d · 2026-08-27 38° 37° 38° 37° 42° 38° 39° 37–42°
1d · 2026-08-28 38° 38° 38° 38° 41° 38° 39° 38–41°
0d · 2026-08-29 38° 39° 37° 38° 40° 39° 39° 37–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.