The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Thu Aug 27?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

8 days out, 5 models put Oklahoma City's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 31° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 35° against the OKC observations — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.

8 days out the models said 31–43; it hit 35. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
8d · 2026-08-19 31° 38° 33° 38° 43° — — 31–43°
7d · 2026-08-20 33° 36° 35° 30° 40° — — 30–40°
6d · 2026-08-21 35° 35° 37° 38° 39° 38° 36° 35–39°
5d · 2026-08-22 34° 34° 36° 33° 37° 33° 35° 33–37°
4d · 2026-08-23 35° 35° 34° 35° 39° 34° 32° 32–39°
3d · 2026-08-24 34° 34° 36° 33° 39° 33° 34° 33–39°
2d · 2026-08-25 35° 34° 35° 36° 38° 34° 36° 34–38°
1d · 2026-08-26 32° 35° 35° 34° 38° 35° 35° 32–38°
0d · 2026-08-27 33° 35° 33° 34° 36° 35° 34° 33–36°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.