Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Wed Aug 26?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
7 days out, 5 models put Oklahoma City's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 34° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 34° against the OKC observations, with 1.0 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-08-19 | 35° | 36° | 34° | 38° | 42° | — | — | 34–42° |
| 6d · 2026-08-20 | 34° | 34° | 34° | 37° | 37° | 31° | 36° | 31–37° |
| 5d · 2026-08-21 | 34° | 34° | 36° | 35° | 40° | 36° | 31° | 31–40° |
| 4d · 2026-08-22 | 33° | 33° | 36° | 37° | 40° | 31° | 36° | 31–40° |
| 3d · 2026-08-23 | 34° | 34° | 34° | 39° | 38° | 35° | 32° | 32–39° |
| 2d · 2026-08-24 | 34° | 34° | 35° | 33° | 39° | 34° | 36° | 33–39° |
| 1d · 2026-08-25 | 35° | 34° | 35° | 35° | 38° | 35° | 37° | 34–38° |
| 0d · 2026-08-26 | 33° | 35° | 33° | 33° | 36° | 34° | 37° | 33–37° |
| actual | 34° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.