The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Aug 24?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

5 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 35° to 46°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 41°. The day verified at 42° against the OKC observations — cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

5 days out the models said 35–46; it hit 42. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
5d · 2026-08-19 40° 42° 44° 40° 46° 35° 39° 35–46°
4d · 2026-08-20 40° 42° 44° 40° 45° 39° 43° 39–45°
3d · 2026-08-21 39° 43° 43° 39° 42° 37° 43° 37–43°
2d · 2026-08-22 38° 41° 43° 40° 43° 35° 39° 35–43°
1d · 2026-08-23 39° 39° 41° 39° 43° 41° 41° 39–43°
0d · 2026-08-24 39° 41° 41° 41° 44° 42° 42° 39–44°
actual 42°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.