Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sun Aug 23?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

4 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Sun Aug 23 high anywhere from 34° to 45°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the OKC observations — cloudy.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ICON ran 4° cold.

4 days out the models said 34–45; it hit 38. AIGFS led (off 0.5°C); ICON ran 4°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
4d · 2026-08-19	34°	39°	39°	38°	45°	44°	35°	34–45°
3d · 2026-08-20	36°	39°	41°	38°	44°	42°	31°	31–44°
2d · 2026-08-21	35°	37°	41°	34°	43°	41°	32°	32–43°
1d · 2026-08-22	35°	37°	35°	37°	42°	38°	37°	35–42°
0d · 2026-08-23	37°	38°	36°	38°	40°	34°	37°	34–40°
actual								38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.