Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Aug 22?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
3 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Aug 22 high anywhere from 98° to 112°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 98° against the OKC observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — showers.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.6°. GFS ran 7° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-08-19 | 101° | 98° | 102° | 105° | 112° | 106° | 101° | 98–112° |
| 2d · 2026-08-20 | 100° | 103° | 107° | 101° | 111° | 109° | 101° | 100–111° |
| 1d · 2026-08-21 | 98° | 96° | 102° | 102° | 109° | 107° | 107° | 96–109° |
| 0d · 2026-08-22 | 92° | 103° | 92° | 96° | 105° | 99° | 96° | 92–105° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.