The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Aug 15?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 33° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 38° with 0.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. ICON ran 1° hot.

14 days out the models said 33–43; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 1°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-31 — 25° — — 43° — — 25–43°
14d · 2026-08-01 40° 33° 40° — 43° — — 33–43°
13d · 2026-08-02 35° 33° 40° — 41° — — 33–41°
12d · 2026-08-03 35° 29° 40° — 42° — — 29–42°
11d · 2026-08-04 38° 29° 35° — 34° — — 29–38°
10d · 2026-08-05 38° 38° 37° — 42° — — 37–42°
9d · 2026-08-06 32° 39° 24° 34° 40° — — 24–40°
8d · 2026-08-07 38° 38° 37° 33° 43° — — 33–43°
7d · 2026-08-08 37° 38° 37° 37° 43° — — 37–43°
6d · 2026-08-09 38° 38° 39° 38° 41° 40° 36° 36–41°
5d · 2026-08-10 39° 39° 38° 39° 43° 40° 39° 38–43°
4d · 2026-08-11 38° 39° 38° 39° 42° 40° 39° 38–42°
3d · 2026-08-12 38° 38° 39° 39° 41° 39° 39° 38–41°
2d · 2026-08-13 39° 39° 40° 38° 42° 40° 40° 38–42°
1d · 2026-08-14 38° 39° 39° 38° 38° 39° 41° 38–41°
0d · 2026-08-15 38° 39° 37° 38° 39° 39° 38° 37–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.