The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Aug 11?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 36° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 39°. ERA5 says the day verified at 38° with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 1° hot.

14 days out the models said 36–43; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 1°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-27 — 36° — — 42° — — 36–42°
14d · 2026-07-28 39° 36° 39° — 43° — — 36–43°
13d · 2026-07-29 31° 34° 39° — 42° — — 31–42°
12d · 2026-07-30 38° 35° 40° — 39° — — 35–40°
11d · 2026-07-31 39° 39° 42° — 40° — — 39–42°
10d · 2026-08-01 38° 38° 38° — 42° — — 38–42°
9d · 2026-08-02 37° 37° 38° 39° 41° — — 37–41°
8d · 2026-08-03 38° 39° 38° 39° 43° — — 38–43°
7d · 2026-08-04 39° 40° 38° 39° 42° — — 38–42°
6d · 2026-08-05 39° 40° 39° 39° 41° 41° 34° 34–41°
5d · 2026-08-06 39° 39° 39° 39° 41° 42° 38° 38–42°
4d · 2026-08-07 39° 39° 40° 39° 42° 40° 39° 39–42°
3d · 2026-08-08 39° 39° 39° 37° 42° 40° 38° 37–42°
2d · 2026-08-09 39° 39° 38° 38° 42° 39° 39° 38–42°
1d · 2026-08-10 39° 39° 39° 38° 38° 39° 39° 38–39°
0d · 2026-08-11 38° 39° 38° 38° 39° 39° 39° 38–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.