The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Aug 10?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Aug 10 high anywhere from 36° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. ERA5 says the day verified at 38° with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 2° hot.

14 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 38. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-26 — 36° — — 36° — — 36–36°
14d · 2026-07-27 36° 37° 40° — 41° — — 36–41°
13d · 2026-07-28 39° 39° 39° — 43° — — 39–43°
12d · 2026-07-29 38° 32° 37° — 39° — — 32–39°
11d · 2026-07-30 36° 37° 39° — 42° — — 36–42°
10d · 2026-07-31 38° 39° 40° — 30° — — 30–40°
9d · 2026-08-01 37° 37° 39° 39° 40° — — 37–40°
8d · 2026-08-02 35° 37° 38° 39° 39° — — 35–39°
7d · 2026-08-03 39° 39° 39° 39° 42° — — 39–42°
6d · 2026-08-04 39° 40° 39° 39° 41° 40° 37° 37–41°
5d · 2026-08-05 38° 39° 40° 38° 42° 40° 38° 38–42°
4d · 2026-08-06 39° 39° 39° 39° 40° 40° 37° 37–40°
3d · 2026-08-07 38° 39° 40° 38° 42° 40° 40° 38–42°
2d · 2026-08-08 38° 38° 39° 38° 42° 39° 39° 38–42°
1d · 2026-08-09 38° 39° 38° 38° 38° 38° 38° 38–39°
0d · 2026-08-10 38° 39° 38° 38° 38° 38° 40° 38–40°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.