The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Aug 8?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Aug 8 high anywhere from 33° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 40°. ERA5 says the day verified at 40° with 0.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 2° hot.

14 days out the models said 33–41; it hit 40. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-24 — 35° — — 42° — — 35–42°
14d · 2026-07-25 36° 33° 40° — 41° — — 33–41°
13d · 2026-07-26 33° 35° 35° — 34° — — 33–35°
12d · 2026-07-27 35° 39° 37° — 39° — — 35–39°
11d · 2026-07-28 36° 39° 40° — 45° — — 36–45°
10d · 2026-07-29 37° 35° 41° — 35° — — 35–41°
9d · 2026-07-30 34° 37° 41° 37° 40° — — 34–41°
8d · 2026-07-31 36° 38° 39° 38° 38° — — 36–39°
7d · 2026-08-01 34° 34° 41° 38° 40° — — 34–41°
6d · 2026-08-02 32° 33° 39° 35° 39° 39° 38° 32–39°
5d · 2026-08-03 40° 38° 39° 37° 42° 39° 40° 37–42°
4d · 2026-08-04 39° 38° 41° 38° 41° 42° 40° 38–42°
3d · 2026-08-05 37° 38° 40° 39° 41° 41° 42° 37–42°
2d · 2026-08-06 38° 38° 40° 40° 38° 41° 40° 38–41°
1d · 2026-08-07 38° 38° 40° 38° 41° 41° 42° 38–42°
0d · 2026-08-08 39° 40° 39° 40° 42° 40° 40° 39–42°
actual 40°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.