Was the forecast right for New York on Tue Sep 1?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
11 days out, 4 models put New York's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 79° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. The day verified at 82° against the NYC observations, with 0.39 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-21 | 79° | 86° | 79° | — | 98° | — | — | 79–98° |
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 75° | 83° | 76° | — | 80° | — | — | 75–83° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 88° | 86° | 84° | — | 79° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 88° | 75° | 82° | 77° | 75° | — | — | 75–88° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 88° | 84° | 93° | 92° | 87° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 83° | 90° | 92° | 88° | 93° | 85° | — | 83–93° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 79° | 90° | 92° | 76° | 90° | 79° | 81° | 76–92° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 78° | 82° | 81° | 85° | 83° | 82° | 79° | 78–85° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 82° | 82° | 93° | 86° | 89° | 80° | 90° | 80–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 83° | 86° | 87° | 88° | 83° | 91° | 81–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 80° | 80° | 85° | 78° | 88° | 83° | 83° | 78–88° |
| 0d · 2026-09-01 | 77° | 85° | 79° | 83° | 88° | 80° | 82° | 77–88° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.