Was the forecast right for New York on Fri Aug 28?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
7 days out, 5 models put New York's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 75° to 82°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 85°. The day verified at 84° against the NYC observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. GFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-08-21 | 81° | 75° | 81° | 79° | 82° | — | — | 75–82° |
| 6d · 2026-08-22 | 82° | 78° | 80° | 81° | 87° | 79° | — | 78–87° |
| 5d · 2026-08-23 | 81° | 82° | 83° | 85° | 89° | 81° | 85° | 81–89° |
| 4d · 2026-08-24 | 82° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 92° | 80° | 86° | 80–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-25 | 82° | 82° | 83° | 77° | 76° | 76° | 86° | 76–86° |
| 2d · 2026-08-26 | 82° | 84° | 82° | 81° | 90° | 82° | 86° | 81–90° |
| 1d · 2026-08-27 | 82° | 83° | 78° | 86° | 90° | 81° | 81° | 78–90° |
| 0d · 2026-08-28 | 80° | 85° | 82° | 87° | 90° | 82° | 85° | 80–90° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.