Was the forecast right for New York on Mon Aug 24?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
3 days out, 7 models put New York's Mon Aug 24 high anywhere from 76° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 79° against the NYC observations — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-08-21 | 78° | 78° | 79° | 76° | 84° | 79° | 82° | 76–84° |
| 2d · 2026-08-22 | 78° | 79° | 77° | 77° | 83° | 80° | 82° | 77–83° |
| 1d · 2026-08-23 | 79° | 80° | 76° | 82° | 84° | 80° | 80° | 76–84° |
| 0d · 2026-08-24 | 79° | 80° | 77° | 83° | 84° | 80° | 81° | 77–84° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.