Was the forecast right for New York on Wed Aug 12?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put New York's Wed Aug 12 high anywhere from 70° to 85°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. ERA5 says the day verified at 89° with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-28 | — | 82° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 79–82° |
| 14d · 2026-07-29 | 79° | 79° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 79–79° |
| 13d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 70° | 79° | — | 85° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 12d · 2026-07-31 | 90° | 84° | 86° | — | 92° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-01 | 78° | 81° | 83° | — | 88° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 10d · 2026-08-02 | 81° | 78° | 89° | — | 80° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 9d · 2026-08-03 | 81° | 84° | 90° | — | 84° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-04 | 80° | 85° | 82° | 80° | 90° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 7d · 2026-08-05 | 84° | 84° | 88° | 77° | 80° | — | — | 77–88° |
| 6d · 2026-08-06 | 82° | 85° | 88° | 86° | 83° | 86° | — | 82–88° |
| 5d · 2026-08-07 | 84° | 86° | 91° | 85° | 88° | 87° | 82° | 82–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-08 | 85° | 85° | 86° | 83° | 87° | 80° | 87° | 80–87° |
| 3d · 2026-08-09 | 85° | 84° | 90° | 84° | 82° | 85° | 87° | 82–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-10 | 84° | 85° | 92° | 86° | 88° | 87° | 87° | 84–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-11 | 85° | 86° | 86° | 87° | 81° | 88° | 85° | 81–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-12 | 87° | 87° | 91° | 87° | 89° | 89° | 88° | 87–91° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.