Was the forecast right for New York on Tue Aug 11?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put New York's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 76° to 88°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. ERA5 says the day verified at 88° with 0.25 in of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-27 | — | 86° | — | — | 97° | — | — | 86–97° |
| 14d · 2026-07-28 | 87° | 80° | — | — | 80° | — | — | 80–87° |
| 13d · 2026-07-29 | 82° | 76° | 88° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 12d · 2026-07-30 | 86° | 76° | 82° | — | 82° | — | — | 76–86° |
| 11d · 2026-07-31 | 90° | 90° | 84° | — | 85° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 10d · 2026-08-01 | 88° | 76° | 84° | — | 94° | — | — | 76–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-02 | 83° | 71° | 84° | — | 88° | — | — | 71–88° |
| 8d · 2026-08-03 | 85° | 88° | 91° | 85° | 84° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-04 | 85° | 85° | 88° | 86° | 95° | — | — | 85–95° |
| 6d · 2026-08-05 | 85° | 87° | 94° | 90° | 88° | 92° | — | 85–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-06 | 86° | 87° | 90° | 91° | 90° | 86° | 94° | 86–94° |
| 4d · 2026-08-07 | 86° | 88° | 90° | 86° | 92° | 88° | 92° | 86–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-08 | 88° | 91° | 81° | 83° | 86° | 89° | 80° | 80–91° |
| 2d · 2026-08-09 | 88° | 90° | 91° | 82° | 90° | 91° | 84° | 82–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-10 | 88° | 90° | 92° | 87° | 84° | 91° | 90° | 84–92° |
| 0d · 2026-08-11 | 86° | 87° | 87° | 88° | 90° | 88° | 89° | 86–90° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.