The Spread

Was the forecast right for New York on Thu Aug 6?

New York, New York · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

10 days out, 4 models put New York's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 27° to 32°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. ERA5 says the day verified at 33° with 5.1 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 2° cold.

10 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-07-27 27° 32° 30° — 32° — — 27–32°
9d · 2026-07-28 31° 25° 27° — 28° — — 25–31°
8d · 2026-07-29 31° 27° 28° 27° 27° — — 27–31°
7d · 2026-07-30 29° 28° 32° 28° 34° — — 28–34°
6d · 2026-07-31 30° 34° 29° 29° 30° 26° — 26–34°
5d · 2026-08-01 31° 33° 30° 30° 34° 30° 33° 30–34°
4d · 2026-08-02 31° 32° 28° 29° 32° 30° 31° 28–32°
3d · 2026-08-03 31° 32° 29° 30° 32° 29° 31° 29–32°
2d · 2026-08-04 31° 32° 30° 30° 32° 30° 31° 30–32°
1d · 2026-08-05 31° 33° 30° 30° 30° 31° 31° 30–33°
0d · 2026-08-06 32° 33° 32° 31° 31° 32° 32° 31–33°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.