Was the forecast right for New York on Sun Aug 2?

New York, New York · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

6 days out, 6 models put New York's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 76° to 82°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 82°. ERA5 says the day verified at 82° with 0.43 in of precipitation — rain.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ICON ran 2° cold.

6 days out the models said 76–82; it hit 82. AIGFS led (off 0.1°); ICON ran 2° cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
6d · 2026-07-27	82°	78°	80°	80°	76°	78°	—	76–82°
5d · 2026-07-28	81°	82°	80°	78°	78°	82°	79°	78–82°
4d · 2026-07-29	80°	80°	80°	78°	83°	80°	81°	78–83°
3d · 2026-07-30	83°	82°	81°	80°	82°	81°	82°	80–83°
2d · 2026-07-31	83°	82°	81°	81°	81°	81°	82°	81–83°
1d · 2026-08-01	82°	81°	82°	83°	83°	80°	82°	80–83°
0d · 2026-08-02	84°	82°	80°	84°	84°	80°	80°	80–84°
actual								82°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.