Was the forecast right for New York on Thu Jul 30?
New York, New York · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
3 days out, 7 models put New York's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 76° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 76°. ERA5 says the day verified at 77° with 0.22 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-07-27 | 77° | 77° | 76° | 76° | 78° | 77° | 80° | 76–80° |
| 2d · 2026-07-28 | 79° | 78° | 73° | 77° | 75° | 76° | 73° | 73–79° |
| 1d · 2026-07-29 | 77° | 74° | 74° | 78° | 75° | 76° | 76° | 74–78° |
| 0d · 2026-07-30 | 78° | 76° | 79° | 79° | 76° | 76° | 76° | 76–79° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.