The Spread

Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Mon Aug 31?

New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations

9 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 30° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 31°. The day verified at 31° against the NEW observations — thunderstorms.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 2° cold.

9 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-08-22 30° 33° 30° — 34° — — 30–34°
8d · 2026-08-23 31° 34° 31° 32° 34° — — 31–34°
7d · 2026-08-24 30° 34° 30° 31° 34° — — 30–34°
6d · 2026-08-25 31° 34° 29° 31° 34° 30° — 29–34°
5d · 2026-08-26 30° 33° 29° 31° 33° 31° 30° 29–33°
4d · 2026-08-27 30° 33° 30° 32° 34° 32° 32° 30–34°
3d · 2026-08-28 29° 32° 30° 33° 33° 31° 32° 29–33°
2d · 2026-08-29 29° 31° 30° 33° 33° 31° 31° 29–33°
1d · 2026-08-30 30° 30° 30° 32° 33° 32° 29° 29–33°
0d · 2026-08-31 30° 32° 29° 33° 32° 31° 31° 29–33°
actual 31°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.