Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Tue Aug 11?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Tue Aug 11 high anywhere from 32° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. ERA5 says the day verified at 33° with 1.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-27 | — | 31° | — | — | 31° | — | — | 31–31° |
| 14d · 2026-07-28 | 32° | 36° | — | — | 31° | — | — | 31–36° |
| 13d · 2026-07-29 | 32° | 36° | 32° | — | 37° | — | — | 32–37° |
| 12d · 2026-07-30 | 30° | 34° | 29° | — | 37° | — | — | 29–37° |
| 11d · 2026-07-31 | 30° | 34° | 28° | — | 36° | — | — | 28–36° |
| 10d · 2026-08-01 | 31° | 35° | 30° | — | 37° | — | — | 30–37° |
| 9d · 2026-08-02 | 31° | 35° | 32° | — | 36° | — | — | 31–36° |
| 8d · 2026-08-03 | 30° | 33° | 32° | 31° | 36° | — | — | 30–36° |
| 7d · 2026-08-04 | 30° | 33° | 32° | 31° | 36° | — | — | 30–36° |
| 6d · 2026-08-05 | 30° | 33° | 31° | 32° | 37° | 31° | — | 30–37° |
| 5d · 2026-08-06 | 30° | 35° | 29° | 33° | 35° | 31° | 32° | 29–35° |
| 4d · 2026-08-07 | 31° | 35° | 30° | 31° | 37° | 30° | 35° | 30–37° |
| 3d · 2026-08-08 | 32° | 35° | 31° | 34° | 34° | 33° | 34° | 31–35° |
| 2d · 2026-08-09 | 32° | 35° | 32° | 32° | 36° | 34° | 32° | 32–36° |
| 1d · 2026-08-10 | 32° | 35° | 32° | 32° | 32° | 34° | 31° | 31–35° |
| 0d · 2026-08-11 | 32° | 34° | 33° | 32° | 34° | 35° | 34° | 32–35° |
| actual | 33° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.