Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Thu Aug 6?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
10 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 87° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. ERA5 says the day verified at 89° with 0.15 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. GFS ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-27 | 88° | 87° | 90° | — | 97° | — | — | 87–97° |
| 9d · 2026-07-28 | 85° | 91° | 88° | — | 98° | — | — | 85–98° |
| 8d · 2026-07-29 | 86° | 93° | 86° | 91° | 92° | — | — | 86–93° |
| 7d · 2026-07-30 | 88° | 92° | 90° | 90° | 95° | — | — | 88–95° |
| 6d · 2026-07-31 | 89° | 92° | 90° | 91° | 96° | 89° | — | 89–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-01 | 87° | 92° | 90° | 91° | 93° | 93° | 93° | 87–93° |
| 4d · 2026-08-02 | 88° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 97° | 93° | 92° | 88–97° |
| 3d · 2026-08-03 | 86° | 93° | 90° | 95° | 96° | 90° | 92° | 86–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-04 | 85° | 94° | 89° | 93° | 95° | 91° | 92° | 85–95° |
| 1d · 2026-08-05 | 86° | 93° | 87° | 93° | 91° | 91° | 90° | 86–93° |
| 0d · 2026-08-06 | 88° | 93° | 88° | 92° | 95° | 90° | 93° | 88–95° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.