Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Tue Aug 4?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
8 days out, 5 models put New Orleans's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 88° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. ERA5 says the day verified at 94° with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 88° | 88° | 90° | 88° | 96° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 88° | 94° | 88° | 86° | 96° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 86° | 92° | 86° | 90° | 93° | 94° | — | 86–94° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 89° | 94° | 91° | 88° | 95° | 94° | 92° | 88–95° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 94° | 91° | 91° | 98° | 93° | 96° | 88–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 90° | 93° | 90° | 93° | 98° | 94° | 92° | 90–98° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 90° | 92° | 91° | 95° | 99° | 92° | 94° | 90–99° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 89° | 92° | 92° | 94° | 95° | 90° | 93° | 89–95° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 89° | 92° | 91° | 94° | 95° | 91° | 93° | 89–95° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.