Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Fri Jul 31?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
4 days out, 7 models put New Orleans's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 86° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. ERA5 says the day verified at 95° with 0.06 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. ICON ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-27 | 86° | 89° | 87° | 89° | 96° | 89° | 92° | 86–96° |
| 3d · 2026-07-28 | 90° | 94° | 88° | 89° | 98° | 90° | 92° | 88–98° |
| 2d · 2026-07-29 | 90° | 94° | 91° | 92° | 97° | 88° | 94° | 88–97° |
| 1d · 2026-07-30 | 91° | 95° | 92° | 95° | 95° | 90° | 94° | 90–95° |
| 0d · 2026-07-31 | 91° | 92° | 92° | 95° | 96° | 90° | 94° | 90–96° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.