Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Sep 1?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
9 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 68° to 85°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 90° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 85° | 68° | 71° | — | 82° | — | — | 68–85° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 84° | 77° | 77° | 87° | 77° | — | — | 77–87° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 84° | 81° | 80° | 88° | 85° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 83° | 78° | 86° | 81° | 85° | 84° | — | 78–86° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 83° | 75° | 86° | 82° | 93° | 84° | 90° | 75–93° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 85° | 80° | 83° | 88° | 96° | 80° | 88° | 80–96° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 82° | 88° | 90° | 89° | 82° | 85° | 82–90° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 86° | 90° | 85° | 94° | 88° | 88° | 85–94° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 86° | 83° | 89° | 94° | 91° | 89° | 91° | 83–94° |
| 0d · 2026-09-01 | 85° | 88° | 90° | 92° | 93° | 89° | 87° | 85–93° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.