Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Mon Aug 31?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MSP observations
8 days out, 5 models put Minneapolis's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 71° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 93° against the MSP observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 1.5°. ECMWF ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 83° | 76° | 80° | 71° | 79° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 83° | 80° | 87° | 84° | 97° | — | — | 80–97° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 84° | 78° | 82° | 92° | 88° | 78° | — | 78–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 83° | 85° | 89° | 87° | 100° | 85° | 83° | 83–100° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 88° | 88° | 84° | 99° | 88° | 87° | 84–99° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 88° | 88° | 84° | 101° | 90° | 86° | 84–101° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 89° | 86° | 86° | 101° | 90° | 85° | 85–101° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 88° | 89° | 87° | 89° | 100° | 86° | 86° | 86–100° |
| 0d · 2026-08-31 | 88° | 87° | 86° | 92° | 96° | 88° | 89° | 86–96° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MSP observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.